Bets on Paraguay at the 2026 World Cup
Paraguay return to the World Cup for the first time since 2010, drawn into Group D with co-hosts the United States. Under experienced coach Gustavo Alfaro and led by attacker Miguel Almirón, La Albirroja are organised, resilient and hard to beat. Here are the key betting markets, group previews and a prediction.
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Key facts for betting on Paraguay
Paraguay return to the World Cup as classic South American underdogs: organised, physical and difficult to break down. The market prices them as long outsiders for the title and a competitive but uphill bet to qualify from Group D. For bettors, the value lies in Paraguay's defensive resilience and counter-attacking threat, which make their match-level and under-goals markets more interesting than their underdog status implies.
Their defining trait is solidity. Under Gustavo Alfaro, Paraguay defend in numbers, compete fiercely and pose a genuine threat from set pieces, with captain Gustavo Gómez a commanding aerial presence at both ends. That profile feeds into betting angles: their clean-sheet and under-goals markets carry value, and they are a reliable handicap and draw-no-bet proposition against stronger sides.
The qualifying campaign was a story of revival. Alfaro transformed a struggling side into a disciplined, hard-to-beat unit that earned its place through grit and organisation rather than flair. That pragmatic identity means Paraguay's games often lean towards low-scoring, cagey outcomes, making under 2.5 goals and the draw worth considering against quality opposition.
The caveats are attacking output and the gap in level to the group's stronger sides. Paraguay can dominate territory yet lack a clinical finisher, leaning on Miguel Almirón and Julio Enciso for moments of quality. The sensible read for bettors is a stubborn, well-drilled side capable of springing a surprise in a tight game, with a realistic ceiling of qualification if their defensive template holds.
Match previews
**Usa vs Paraguay (2026-06-13).** A demanding opener against the co-hosts in a hostile atmosphere. Paraguay will set up to frustrate, defending deep, staying compact and looking to spring Almirón and Enciso on the counter. The USMNT are favourites at home, but La Albirroja's organisation makes a surprise or a point far from impossible. For bettors, under-goals and the draw carry value, and both-teams-to-score appeals given Paraguay's set-piece threat. Keeping the game tight and nicking something on the break is the realistic plan.
**Turquia vs Paraguay (2026-06-20).** A meeting with the group's most technically gifted side. Paraguay will rely on their structure and physicality to contain Turkey's flair, looking to strike from set pieces or transitions. Turkey are favourites, so the realistic angles are under-goals, the draw and Paraguay's set-piece scorer markets. La Albirroja are difficult to break down, which could keep this tight and low-scoring. A point would be a fine result, and Paraguay's discipline makes them a credible handicap pick in a competitive contest.
**Paraguay vs Australia (2026-06-26).** Potentially the decisive fixture for Paraguay's hopes, against a similarly organised, hard-working Australia side. This is a tight, evenly matched contest between two pragmatic teams, likely to be decided by a single moment, a set piece or an individual error. For bettors, under-goals, the draw and both-teams-to-score all carry appeal in a cagey game. Paraguay's quality through Almirón gives them a slight edge, and if qualification is on the line, expect a tense, controlled performance built on their defensive strengths.
Prediction
Paraguay are well-organised enough to be competitive in Group D, and their best path to qualification runs through results against Australia and one of the stronger sides. Their pragmatic, defensive identity caps the scoring but keeps them in every game. A realistic outcome is a fight for second place that could go to the wire, with the round of 16 the upside if the defence holds.
How Paraguay arrive at the World Cup
Paraguay reached the 2026 finals after a remarkable turnaround, ending a long World Cup absence that stretched back to 2010. The qualifying campaign began poorly but was transformed by the appointment of Gustavo Alfaro, who restored organisation, belief and a clear defensive identity to a side that had lost its way.
Alfaro's template is built on solidity, work rate and set-piece quality, with a settled spine that knows its roles. Gustavo Gómez and Omar Alderete anchor a resilient defence, Andrés Cubas and Mathías Villasanti provide steel in midfield, and Miguel Almirón and Julio Enciso carry the attacking threat on the break. That structure dragged Paraguay back into contention and over the line.
Momentum from the revival is real, with the squad carrying the confidence of a team that ground out the results when it mattered. The recurring concern is goals: Paraguay can struggle to score against organised defences, leaning heavily on individual moments. Alfaro's challenge is to add a cutting edge to a defensively sound side. If he can, La Albirroja have the structure to be competitive and the resilience to spring a surprise in a tight, evenly matched group.
Gustavo Alfaro: record and achievements
Gustavo Alfaro is an experienced Argentine coach known for organising and revitalising South American national teams, and the architect of Paraguay's qualification.
**Main honours.** Alfaro has managed widely in Argentine club football and previously led Ecuador to the 2022 World Cup, building a reputation for disciplined, well-drilled sides that overachieve. Rescuing Paraguay's stalled qualifying campaign is among the standout achievements of his career.
**Key for the 2026 World Cup.** Alfaro's strength is organisation, motivation and tactical pragmatism. He quickly instils a clear defensive structure, lifts struggling squads and gets modest groups punching above their weight, exactly what Paraguay needed. His sides are hard to beat and dangerous from set pieces, the template that gives an underdog a chance against stronger opponents. His ability to set up a stubborn, disciplined team could be decisive in the fine margins of a tight Group D.
Players to watch
**Miguel Almirón.** Paraguay's talisman and most dangerous attacker, a quick, energetic forward whose pace and directness make him central to their counter-attacking threat. His ability to carry the ball, beat defenders and produce a decisive goal or assist makes him the obvious pick in La Albirroja's scorer markets. When Almirón is sharp, Paraguay have a genuine outlet to turn solid defending into points.
**Julio Enciso.** The emerging creative talent who adds flair and unpredictability to a pragmatic side. His dribbling, vision and eye for goal give Paraguay a different dimension in attack, and he represents the future of the team. When Enciso is on the ball, La Albirroja look more dangerous, and his anytime-scorer markets carry value as he takes on more responsibility.
**Gustavo Gómez.** The captain and defensive leader, a commanding centre-back who organises the back line and is a major aerial threat at both ends. His reading of the game underpins Paraguay's solidity, and his presence on set pieces makes him an under-the-radar scorer option. A dependable figure on whom Paraguay's clean-sheet credentials and defensive structure depend.
Miguel Almirón: the team's key player
Miguel Almirón is Paraguay's standout attacker and the player most likely to turn their disciplined defending into goals, an energetic, pacy forward who carries the team's main creative threat.
**Almirón's impact, key for Paraguay at the World Cup.** Paraguay's game plan is built on defensive solidity and quick counters, and Almirón is the engine of that transition. His pace stretches defences, his directness beats opponents, and his ability to produce a decisive moment in the final third is exactly what a counter-attacking side needs to win tight games. Against stronger opposition that dominates possession, his threat on the break becomes even more vital. When Almirón is influential, La Albirroja carry a genuine cutting edge, which makes his assist and anytime-scorer markets among the most attractive individual bets on the side.
Likely line-up
Probable formation 4-4-2: - Goalkeeper: Roberto Fernández - Defence: Damián Bobadilla, Gustavo Gómez, Omar Alderete, Junior Alonso - Midfield: Diego Gómez, Andrés Cubas, Mathías Villasanti, Miguel Almirón - Attack: Julio Enciso, Antonio Sanabria
Paraguay fixtures
Squad list
- Roberto Fernández
- Carlos Coronel
- Gustavo Gómez
- Omar Alderete
- Junior Alonso
- Damián Bobadilla
- Andrés Cubas
- Mathías Villasanti
- Diego Gómez
- Miguel Almirón
- Julio Enciso
- Antonio Sanabria
- Ramón Sosa
- Ángel Romero